An article appearing in Sunday's South Bend Tribune, points out several reasons why people involved in the RV industry need not give up hope for a successful year.
 
The article noted several silver linings in the storm clouds that appear to be passing over the industry right now.
 
First, the 2008 projection for RV shipments is still comfortably above the 10-year average for wholesale shipments. In December, University of Michigan researcher Dr. Richard Curtin predicted the industry would ship around 334,100 units to dealers -- a 4.8 percent drop below 2007 levels. However, compared to shipment levels posted over the past seven years, that number still sounds positive. Here are the year-end shipment levels since 2000:
 
2000 = 300,100 units
2001 = 256,800 units
2002 = 311,000 units
2003 = 320,800 units
2004 = 370,100 units
2005 = 384,400 units
2006 = 390,500 units
2007 = 353,400 units
2008 = 334,100 projected
 
If Dr. Curtin's projections hold true, 2008 will be 4.15 percent higher than 2003's figures. And I remember how giddy with excitement and energy the RV industry was in 2003 talking as though shipments were going through the roof. Today, the same number drains color from the faces of executives and hushed voices as people wonder what they'll do to "survive."
 
Keep in mind, in 2004, two major hurricanes ravaged Florida within weeks of each other, and in 2003, hurricane Isabel caused nearly $4 billion in damage to the Carolinas. Factoring out the effect of four major hurricanes slamming into America, including 2005's Katrina, I'd say the RV industry is pretty much on track to where it was before the storms increased the demand for temporary homes.
 
Back to the article. The second reason for positive thinking centers on interest rate cuts. While lower rates are taking their sweet time to trickle down to RV dealers, they are coming. Even lenders admit that it will take several weeks or months for lower rates to be reflected in consumer loans.
 
Imagine that, lower interest rates just about the time people get a $1,200 rebate check from the government to "spur" consumer spending -- reason No. 3 to be optimistic about 2008.
 
Falling fuel prices were also cited in the article as a silver lining in the economic clouds. Oil prices have fallen 11 percent in the last five weeks. Market analysts expect it to take a few weeks before the prices are reflected in the pump, although I paid $2.85 yesterday for gas -- the lowest I've paid in months.
 
Here's Greg Gerber's for-what-it's-worth analysis. People are tired, very tired, of winter. As we Wisconsonians prepare for the 27th winter storm to hit the area in 12 weeks, I've sensed people are grumpy. They are tired of being cooped up indoors. They are tired of shoveling -- snow and the @%#& coming out of the presidential debates.
 
IF spring ever arrives, and the sun stays out for more than four days in a row, I suspect consumer confidence will spring back like buds on a lilac bush. The arrival of spring will coincide with lower interest rates, falling gas prices, tax refund checks, a government economic stimulus rebate and a very strong desire to turn off the TV and head outdoors.
 
Therefore, Gerber predicts a better-than-expected first half of the year.
 
Need more proof?  While Pennsylvanians were electrocuting Punxsutawney Phil out of his hibernation on Groundhog Day Saturday to predict more winter weather, Wisconsin's highly reliable Jimmy the groundhog woke up on his own, gently stretched for a moment before glancing outside at the overcast skies. After failing to see his shadow, Jimmy returned to his home to prepare for an early spring.
 
Still not convinced?  Wolfgang Neuwirth, the publisher of RV Industry News, bought a new truck last week. Can a new RV purchase be far behind?